Modi and dawood

By Prem Chandran
Narendra Modi’s reported stress on bringing back underworld don Dawood Ibrahim, widely known to be in the Pakistani hands for two decades and guiding the operations there against India, has stirred a hornet’s nest. Interior Minister of Pakistan Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan reacted by saying Modi should first decide “where Dawood is living.” The Pakistani government’s deceit, double talk, and mischievous designs against India worked well with the Sonia-Manmohan establishment, and to an extent with even President Obama – the (by-birth) half Muslim, half Christian president of the United States who is increasingly becoming a laughing stock. But, days are changing in India. It is set to change in the US too in the not-too-distant future, if the Republicans have a chance to get back to power. Khan's or those of his ilk's language would have been lapped up by a Manmohan Singh or Sonia Gandhi in the past, but that language might not work with Narendra Modi, the BJP and the RSS. Those who run the three-dimensional governance system in Pakistan should know as much.

Fact is everyone other than the Indian establishment knows where, or in whose hands, Dawood is. Dawood is wanted not just by India, but also by the US as also the Interpol. Americans should know where Dawood is. Sushil Kumar Shinde, or Manmohan Singh for that matter, should have no confusion, too, as to where the don is. It is known to the entire world that he is harboured by the ISI in Pakistan or elsewhere depending on seasons, and that he is directly communicating with the Pakistani establishment on a daily basis. It is no secret also that ISI is providing one ring in the security cover for Dawood.

Dawood has been the mastermind behind a series of terror attacks in India, mainly in Mumbai. That he controls several of the business interests in Dubai, UAE, as also in South East Asia, Thailand in particular, and has high stakes in the underworld business of drugs and prostitution at the global level is general knowledge. Nothing might, however, be happening in his name, per se. He had his daughter married at a five star hotel in Dubai some years ago, which was not only attended by a large assembly of Pakistanis, but several worthies from the Middle East too. There are two views as to whether or not Dawood himself was present through the ceremony. Those in the know of things say he was. No one can touch him in Dubai.

Pakistan keeps denying Dawood’s presence in that country. Technically, he might not be. It could even be that his body, mind and spirit are there in some other name or form. Pakistan kept denying Osama bin Laden was in their territory -- until Americans swooped down on his base, shot him down, and took the body away. What comes naturally to the Pakistani establishment is deceit, or lie. And repeating a lie a hundred times might work wonders as per the Goebbelsian theory. But diplomacy today is more hard-edged. Simply put, the presence or not of Dawood in Pakistan or thereabouts is not a debatable issue. He is in the Pakistani hands. That much we know. Period. And, any government worth its salt would need to work to get him back, irrespective of the fact that some Muslims in Mumbai or elsewhere regard him as their saviour. Even granted that he is a hero to many more people in this country, should India sulk when it comes to getting him back?

Facts are facts. But, true to form, the weak-kneed Indian establishment is in a constant state of denial as regards knowledge about Dawood’s whereabouts. The failure of the Indian establishment to track down Dawood, citing one excuse or the other, is just another proof of the lack of nerve with which the Indian government functioned under the Sonia Gandhi -- Manmohan Singh era. This was so even during the IK Gujaral period when the Indian establishment committed several foolish acts in respect of Pakistan, including the dismantling of the intelligence network that India had in Pakistan; something the RAW had painstakingly built up. Pakistan's intelligence gathering systems in India continue in strength --some suspect there are moles even in the top echelons of the administration. But past is past. Our concern is for the future.

If the mood in India today is heavily tilted against Sonia Gandhi or Manmohan Singh, it has also to do with their perceived failures on the foreign policy front.

The obsession of Sonia Gandhi, who was the last word under the two UPA rules, was, we guess, nothing more than ensuring victories for the Congress party in successive elections and making the best of the situation to promote the other of her interests. That her son-in-law Robert Vadra stands solidly on top of newly acquired wealth in millions, amassed over the past two decades, and he did so after starting from scratch, are common knowledge now. How he did this is an issue before court today, and no mention here is appropriate. That the world finally knew what was going on, was thanks to the courage of a senior bureaucrat in Haryana, and the follow-up initiatives taken by the likes of Arvind Kejriwal. Till then, the BJP's stalwarts in the party and the Parliament were game with such things, even as this was the talk of the town in and around Delhi for the past few years.

The stand taken by Sushma Swaraj, who led the Opposition in Parliament and Arun Jaitley who led them in the Rayja Sabha, was that "we will not make personal attacks." Even Lal Krishna Advani subscribed to that line, and the reasons are by now well-known. In other words, they were a party to the collective loot of India. Now, they are on the defensive too. The scenario continued until Narendra Modi came on the scene. Confrontation was his way forward. The Indian media was as ever after trivial things, so that they can be in the good books of the powers that be. A panel discussion in the evening is, on the one side, an occasion for a show off both for the anchor and for the political and other super stars participating in them. On the other, it is also an occasion to brush big issues under the carpet and argue the time out over petty matters.

It would appear that the Congress leadership thought it can buy the poor and remain in power for ever. Sonia Gandhi's pet schemes like the Food Security Bill were thought to be strategies to turn India’s poor as a vote bank for the Congress party. The scheme was put into practice even when it meant effecting a serious strain on the economy. P. Chidambaran has now admitted as much. This, together with a pampering of the Muslims by raising the secular bogey --as has been the case with the Congress party, the Left, and several others too -- was thought to benefit the Congress' return to power. India’s poor might prove in this election that they can’t be taken for granted with crumbs like this. Muslims, pitted as they are against Narendra Modi, are bound to stand by the Congress in places where they have no other alternative.

Narendra Modi’s reported offer is that he would not put the Dawood issue in cold storage as the UPA has done. Some media reports had quoted him as saying he would not mind even targeting Islamabad to serve this purpose. But, if there is the will, which he is sure to have, the goal can be achieved with no attack at all. The only question is whether the Pakistani government, pushed to the extreme, would hand over Dawood alive or dead. Modi might or might not have said he would attack Islamabad. It was likely that he said it for effect. This is campaign time, and he has to raise the heat.

At the same time, Modi, and several others in this country know well that, India does not have to attack Pakistan to achieve its ends. India would need only play Pakistan’s game, and give it back in the same coin with which it kept playing its tricks against India for long by taking advantage of the friendly settings provided by the UPA II in particular. India knows where to hit to hurt Pakistan the most. What was lacking was the will. Modi, one supposes, has both the will and the courage to make a change to the way India is governed; and that includes protecting and promoting its interests outside of India as well.Getting Dawood alive might not be easy. But Pakistan would need to know it has a price to pay for what it keeps doing against India. indiahereandnow.com; premcee@gmail.com