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Calling the sena's bluff

By Prem Chandran Politics is no ordinary man’s game; and no ordinary man can bluff his way into leadership, where .....




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10-21-2014
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Thumbs up Calling the sena's bluff


By Prem Chandran

Politics is no ordinary man’s game; and no ordinary man can bluff his way into leadership, where the survival of the fittest is the norm. To start with, we know there is a difference between ordinary mortals and extraordinary individuals. Ordinary mortals go along beaten tracks and are inclined to avoid risks. The smart ones chart their own course, dare to challenge, and take the bull by its horns. The wresting of two more states – Maharashtra and Haryana -- for the BJP is an extraordinary feat by any yardstick, and what went into play was political shrewdness of the highest order.

What needs emphasis at the outset is the role played by the anti-corruption movement in the past few years to turn the tide against the corrupt governments in this country -- a baggage the Congress government in Haryana and the Congress-NCP government in Maharashtra carried with them to the polls. It so happens that the BJP reaped the benefits of the seeds sown by the anti-corruption activists through the length and breadth of the country. This is not to lose sight of the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and political shrewdness of the BJP chief Amit Shah, who together pulled off a coup of sorts in both the states.

For the BJP, breaking the ties with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra at the gateway to the elections involved a grave risk: of a likely defeat for the party at the hustings at a time when it could ill afford it. This was the time it needed a victory the most, if only to belie the assumptions that the Modi Magic was on the wane. At a broader level, getting more states into its fold was important for the party also for the reason that, as a matter of first priority, it needed to neutralize the Congress strength in the Rajya Sabha, if only to get key bills passed in the coming months. And, it is in the Rajya Sabha where the Congress offensive is now mainly concentrated, it having lost the fight at the ground level, and both Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi making only occasional guest appearances in public. The BJP neither had organizational strength nor leaders of stature in both the states. Under the circumstances, fighting the polls alone was a gamble of rare courage. And, Modi was made the mascot. Twentyseven Modi campaign rallies one after another, and each attended by over two lakh people. The results are there for all to see.

To say that the people acted in a judicious manner in both Maharashtra and Haryana is to state the obvious.

The BJP crafting victories for the party in the two states, and more importantly in Maharashtra, is proof the Amit Shah-Narendra Modi duo has proven yet again to be a lethal combination for the BJP. With two more states in its kitty, the BJP has come of age, and there is little on the part of the principal Opposition, the Congress party, to stop the Saffron party in its tracks. Our concern today should, thus, be more for the virtual decimation of the principal opposition in this country, albeit for the time being. Yet, we are not here to write off the Congress. It depends on how politics takes shape in the coming months.

Till the other day, BJP rode piggyback on the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. The Thackeray outfit called the shots from capital Mumbai, and the BJP had put most of its eggs in one basket: the individual popularity of Gopinath Munde, who had a special reach among the large mass of the backward communities in the state. But, fate willed otherwise. The untimely demise of Munde in a car crash in Delhi days after he was sworn in as a minister in the Narendra Modi government, had the BJP worried. It had another prominent leader in Nitin Gadkari, the Nagpur-based Brahmin leader, the blue-eyed boy of the RSS, who rightly earned the reputation of an efficient administrator, and did a great job with the ministries he handled in the past in Maharashtra. As BJP chief, he gained more strength. However, his undoing was the image of him being a corrupt leader; an issue that was brought to the fore not by the Congress, but by some social activists. To add to this, he was seen to be having a soft corner with Lal Krishna Advani, something that put him in the bad books of Modi.

So, with no leader to effectively run the BJP campaign, the main Saffron party was somewhat crestfallen when the assembly polls approached. That it won a large number of seats in the Lok Sabha elections, in alliance with the Shiv Sena, was what gave some hope to the BJP in facing this assembly polls with confidence. But, Assembly polls are different from Lok Sabha polls. And, the series of defeats the BJP suffered in the assembly bypolls in a few states two months after the Lok Sabha polls was proof that the voters can no more be taken for granted.

Under the circumstances, what would we the ordinary mortals do? We can be trusted to latch on to the Shiv Sena, take whatever seats it is ready to offer, and grin and bear with it. For, a victory is a must for our very own survival at this crucial hour. No one visualized the scenario more than the Shiv Sena did. Its perceptibly immature leadership found an opportunity waiting for it: not only to impose itself over the BJP even in this supposedly changed times a la Modi, but also to stake its claim for the gaddi: the CM post. Amit Shah’s line was clear when he made a last-ditch effort through intermediaries to keep the alliance kicking. “Let us face the polls together, and whoever gets more seats can pick the CM post.” Uddhav Thackeray, who took over the reins of party leadership from his deceased father just a couple of years ago, persisted with his demand with a missionary zeal. Compromise was not a word in the Sena lexicon. Sena would have the upper hand, BJP should be satisfied with what it is given, and Sena would have the CM post, Udddhav insisted. Suffice it to say that, in the end, the Sena lost the plot for most part.

Political sagacity is what Uddhav Thackeray lacked; and that is precisely what the old warhorse, the Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar possessed in abundance. The smart actor that Pawar is, he proved to be the undoing for the Sena. He virtually turned the table on the Sena. The crafty Pawar watching the scenario from behind was moving his cards with a rare deftness. Being with the Congress, he knew, was not of any help in the immediate future. He broke the ties with it abruptly weeks before the assembly polls, and fought the polls independently by banking on his Maratha support base, which essentially was region-specific. There was behind-the-scene parleys between BJP and Pawar. In case...! Rahul Gandhi, for one, thought, “Good riddance!” The good-natured individual that he is, he was suffering the NCP and its leaders for long. He had a ringside view of what Pawars and Patels were upto when they were in government.

As the results were out and the BJP ran short of a majority, the Shiv Sena chief sat cross-legged in his home waiting for a BJP call. That was when Pawar upped his ante: unconditional outside support for the BJP. In other words, if one cannot be in power, why not be on the right side of power, which is the minimum that he could hope for, to start with. That, he knew, would also help end the “untouchability” that sections of the BJP-RSS bandwagon, and even some saner elements in the Congress, kept against him in view of the NCP’s highly corrupt image. He probably reasoned that this would be the first step towards being a part of power, yet again, in the months ahead. Also, the several corruption cases pending against the high and mighty in the party are inching forward. Being nice to the BJP is the only hope to extricate the party out of a grim scenario.

Sharad Pawar is among the shrewdest politicians that the country has seen in the past few decades. He has a mass base, he has good political instincts, and he is an able administrator and an abler orator (in Marathi) as well. His undoing however was that he first lost the plot when he raised a banner of revolt against Sonia Gandhi, pointing a finger at her foreign origin, which saw him out of the Congress. He thought the Congressmen would stand by him. Congressmen thought he was an outlandish fool of the first order. Yet, in later years, he made peace with Sonia Gandhi and cohabited with the Congress and the BJP in iterations, making sure that he and his party were in power, term after term.

Power corrupts and more years in power allegedly corrupted Pawar absolutely -- and more so the men who stood with him. There were not one, but two, albatrosses round his neck. One was Praful Patel, NCP’s second Union Minister. No elaboration is needed, and Delhi is so familiar with his modus operandi. In Mumbai, it was Ajit Pawar, the old hat’s nephew, who not only faced tongue-lashes over many corrupt deals, but also let his tongue loose too. For instance, when villagers in his constituency complained about ponds getting dry affecting their irrigation requirements, his famous retort: “Should I piss and fill the tanks?” The anti-corruption activists found the best prey in the Pawar outfit. So much so, when one dare-devil activist slapped Pawar in Delhi, in full public view -- aired for a full day by TV channels over his image of being a corrupt politician -- the one who smiled broadly was the spearhead of the anti-corruption movement, Anna Hazare. Anna reacted with a tongue-in-cheek remark, “Only one slap?” That, by now, is history. Trust Pawar to find new moorings and keep his ambitions alive.

Lal Krishna Advani, put behind a smoke screen, was game seeing the Shiv Sena taking matters to a head and breaking the 25-year-old alliance. His counsel was hard to come by, by way of persuading the Sena to climb down a bit on its demands; rather, it would appear he waited with bated breath to see Modi and Shah run for cover after the results were announced. Now, the BJP in Maharashtra having come this far, he is itching to fly down to Mumbai with an offer of mediation with the Sena, with whose leadership he always maintained a special relationship! Who is fooling whom? Narendra Modi might have had a hearty laugh at the offer.

It would appear that the BJP is game with the alienation from its old partner, who could, if made part of a coalition ministry, make matters worse for the new government at every turn. Highhandedness is at the core of Sena’s political philosophy. Ruthless, rude and crude, it muscle-flexed its way to prominence and power in Mumbai. It sees abundant merit in carrying on with its old tactics, and more so when there is both power and pelf to gain from a hard bargain. The NCP-Shiv Sena fights at the grassroots level are well-known. Both sides fight inch by inch, and have no dearth of thugs. The NCP being on the right side of the ruling BJP and the Shiv Sena on the other side could, by itself, be a nightmare for the Sainiks now. That the Shiv Sena emerged as the second largest party, that can legitimately carry with it the leader of the Opposition status is not lost sight of. Much to its glee, it has seen the decimation of the MNS, floated by Uddhav’s estranged cousin, in this poll, that saw its tally coming down to one from the 13 in the last assembly.

It is understandable that the BJP couldn’t care less for the Sena now. The options, in fact, are many for the BJP to keep the show going once it starts running the ministry in Mumbai. Legislators from small parties and independents who won the elections together number around 20. BJP already has the numbers right for it, even without the support of the Sena and the NCP. It has its bargaining chips too. Its backing for the Shiv Sena in the Mumbai Municipal Corporation is crucial for the Sena to carry on with its overlordship of the civic body – the virtual lifeline for the party. The Sena nominee in the Modi government in Delhi is carrying on, unmindful of what’s happening in Mumbai. And, Modi and Shah, worse come worse, can be trusted upon to tighten the screws on Sena in Mumbai and elsewhere in Maharashtra if push comes to shove. If Sena wants to be in the state government, it will have to do a lot of climb down from its projected positions. Any wonder there is neither smile nor blood on Uddhav Thackeray’s face these days?

premcee@gmail.com; www.indiahereandnow.com

Last edited by Premchandran; 10-26-2014 at 05:30 AM
  #2  
11-02-2014
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I had been for Shapath Grahan Samaroh of swearing -in ceremony of Shri Devendrabhai Fadnavis 31st Oct 2014 at Wankhede stadium.The video camera focussed on Udhav Thackeray so shamelessly attending the ceremony after having said so many abusive words for BJP even to the extent "BJP ne amcha vishwaasghat kela"what has BJP done BJP party is calm,tolerable and understandable. .Does his party Shivsena not have any principles????
Regarding Sharad Pawar he is the most crooked and corrupt POLITICIANS of all-time history.He has no doubt good political instincts,able administrator,able orator ( MARATHI AS WELL AS HINDI)was elected Mukhya Mantri 4 times in Maharashtra and making a fool of public and has underworld connections Chhota Shakeel gang and underworld dons,I fail to understand People are they ignorant of his political moves , he is making fool--fool--fool of public ?is a million dollar question.

 



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